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The lottery operator also criticised government proposals for a blanket advertising ban on licensed online gambling providers in June. It argued such restrictions could inadvertently drive more players towards unregulated, illegal platforms.
According to Nederlandse Loterij, illegal operators currently control approximately half of the Dutch online gambling market and account for roughly 95% of online gambling advertisements, frequently masquerading as licensed providers.
The Loterij suggested around 200,000 Dutch citizens already engage with unauthorised platforms.
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Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”
Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.
What is Benny The Beer?
Kelley also cited improvements at Robinhood as a possible factor for the regression at Kalshi. Just before the NFL season, Robinhood took a minority stake in Crypto.com and struck a deal to begin routing NFL contracts to OG.com, the site’s regulated prediction market platform.
A 40% weekly increase at Crypto.com combined with the attrition at Kalshi may reflect the enormity of the Robinhood deal, according to Kelley.
With all activity, beyond just football, Crypto.com recorded trading volume of $350 million for the week, figures from The PM Pulse show. The newsletter, which is in partnership with Aldrin Research for monitoring industry trends, indicated that Crypto saw weekly growth of 41%. While Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for more than $15 billion in weekly volume, four others recorded activity of at least $300 million. Buoyed by a popular Sydney Sweeney ad, Novig increased volume by nearly 34% on the week.