Honey Gems

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That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.

Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.

“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

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Much of the onus for the increasing black market is put on increasingly restrictive policies enforced by regulators across the licensed sector.

Taking a deeper look at these restrictive driving black market activity, up to 46% of the markets covered in the report enforced “significant advertising restrictions” on the regulated market, including in Belgium, Bulgaria, Coratia, Cyprus, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Spain.

Additionally the report cited taxing consumers (in 29% of the 28 markets covered), and banned products (14%), were also propelling growth in illegal gambling. A lack of choice, due to monopolies in place in five markets has also driven the rise.

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