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Kalshi has imposed strict protocols for customer sign-up, which includes proof of US residency, along with a US tax identification number. The operator also requires traders to complete a robust know-your-customer check before trading on its site.

Per a nine-page member agreement issued by Kalshi in June, users are required to acknowledge that they are prohibited from trading on event contracts if domiciled in roughly three dozen countries. Australia, by way of the ASIC ban, received inclusion on the list. Under the agreement, Kalshi reserves the right to deny users access to its platform in the restricted jurisdictions.

In a statement released in August, ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland wrote that users who opt to engage with overseas operators may miss out on “protections” afforded to them on Australian soil. Another regulator, the Australian Communications and Media Authority, banned Polymarket from operating nationwide in 2025. According to the agency, Polymarket violated the Interactive Gaming Act of 2001 by accepting in-play betting on sports events.

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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”

Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.

Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.

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“With a direct integration, we have examples of partners integrating us in 24 hours,” he says. “Reverse integration is really hard for everybody, but in our case we can complete a reverse integration in a maximum of three weeks, including all the tests and going live.”

Swipe Games’ immediate ambition is substantial: its current “North Star”, Yashin says, is to reach €600m in bet volume per month.

Yet its longer-term vision stretches beyond simply adding more short videos to the casino floor. Ultimately, Yashin does not see Swipe as simply another category within the existing casino lobby. His ambition is for it to become a platform-level feature: alongside games, live casino and sports, players would find a dedicated Swipe button opening an endless feed personalised around their individual tastes.